Elections Modelled by Electoral Reform Society

Unconventional Elections Result in Surprising Outcomes

Intriguing Results Under Alternative Voting Method

The Electoral Reform Society (ERS), a campaign group advocating for electoral reform, conducted a simulation to demonstrate the potential outcomes of recent elections under an alternative voting system. The ERS modeled the results of the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections and the 2016 US presidential election using the Alternative Vote (AV) system, where voters rank candidates in order of preference.

In the UK general election simulations, the ERS found that AV would have led to different outcomes in several constituencies. In 2017, AV would have produced a hung Parliament, with no party winning an overall majority. Similarly, in 2019, AV would have resulted in a reduced Conservative majority, with Labour gaining more seats. In the US presidential election simulation, AV would have resulted in a different outcome in two states, with Donald Trump losing Wisconsin and gaining Pennsylvania.

The ERS's simulations highlight the potential impact of alternative voting systems on election outcomes. AV, which allows voters to express their preferences for multiple candidates, has been proposed as a way to increase the representativeness of elected bodies and reduce the likelihood of unrepresentative outcomes.